Miami’s Two Markets: The Condo Reset vs. The $100M+ Boom

2026-10-26 · Weekly Market Brief

Miami's real estate market is split in two: a challenging reset for older condos, and an absolute tear for ultra-luxury homes and prime preconstruction. Here is what I am seeing on the ground.

I'm seeing a massive divide in the Miami market right now, and if you are looking at real estate here, you need to understand it. On one side, we have what people are calling a "condo crisis"—older buildings facing a wave of listings because of new Florida condo laws, rising fees, and big special assessments. It is a tough spot for those owners, and it is dragging down general sales numbers. But on the other side? The ultra-luxury sector is operating in a completely different universe. If you only read the scary headlines about lagging home sales, you miss the real story. The action is concentrated at the very top. In Miami-Dade, luxury homes are driving the entire market while the lower-end and mid-market segments struggle to find their footing. It is a tale of two markets. While some segments are resetting, the high-end buyer with cash is still writing massive checks. We are seeing $1 million-plus home sales leading the market in 2026, and the ultra-wealthy are not showing signs of slowing down.

The $100M+ Club and the Billionaire Playgrounds

Look at Coral Gables. We just saw a massive, chapel-equipped waterfront compound hit the market asking $148 million. That is not a typo. It is one of Florida's priciest estates, complete with marble terraces and a guest villa, pushing the Gables into the ultra-rare $100M+ club. Then you have Coconut Grove. I have said it before, but the Grove has officially transitioned from a quiet, bohemian neighborhood into a primary playground for billionaires and the ultra-rich. The demand for luxury real estate in Coconut Grove is keeping inventory incredibly tight. Buyers want the privacy, the canopy streets, and the ocean views, and they are willing to pay a premium to get in. Whether it is boutique new condos or estate homes, the Grove is no longer a secret. It is a destination.

The Preconstruction Giants Are Still Pulling Billions

There is a lot of talk about a "market reset" and even some drama on the ground—like overdue debt on certain projects and dead deals making news. But the truly elite preconstruction projects are still moving forward with staggering numbers. Take the Mandarin Oriental Miami condos. They managed to sell $1.7 billion in inventory before even breaking ground. That tells you everything you need to know about global wealth's appetite for brand-name, highly serviced luxury in Miami. These buyers aren't waiting around for mortgage rates to drop; they are buying a lifestyle and a hedge against inflation. While the broader condo market deals with rising fees and structural reserve requirements, new, top-tier construction is still commanding top dollar.

What I'd Do About It

• If you are selling an older condo: Be realistic. The rising cost of condo living—assessments, insurance, and new laws—means buyers are hyper-focused on carrying costs. Price it to move before more competition joins the market.
• If you are buying preconstruction: Stick to the premier brands and well-capitalized developers. The success of projects like the Mandarin Oriental shows where the smart money is going. Focus on quality, location, and developer track record to shield yourself from any broader market noise.
• If you are looking at single-family homes: Focus on high-barrier-to-entry neighborhoods like Coconut Grove and Coral Gables. They are proving to be highly resilient because the land is scarce and the billionaire demand is real.