The Affordability Myth is Dead, But Miami's Luxury Market is Fast as Ever
2026-10-12 · Weekly Market Brief
Miami prices are still rising despite high mortgage rates, but the "cheap Florida" era is officially over. Here is what's actually happening on the ground in Miami Beach, Brickell, and the Grove.
If you are waiting for Miami home prices to drop because mortgage rates are high, you might be waiting a long time. The latest data shows our home prices are still climbing despite those high rates. But something has shifted. The days of people blindly moving here from the Northeast because "it's cheap" are over. Realtor.com just came out with a report showing a sharp drop in East Coast migration to Miami, pointing out that Florida's affordability advantage is gone. Honestly, it is about time we acknowledged this. We are no longer a bargain destination. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is even studying our housing affordability strains. But does this mean a crash is coming? No. The broader market consensus is that a crash is highly unlikely. What we are seeing is a market transition. The fast money is slowing down, but the serious money is still very much here.
The Ultra-Luxury Market is Speed-Running
While the lower end of the market deals with affordability issues, the top of the luxury market is moving at a crazy pace. In Miami Beach, we just saw two waterfront teardowns sell for over $50 million combined. They went into separate bidding wars, and the buyers moved fast because, as we say on the ground, speed is critical. Another waterfront home in Miami Beach went to a St. Louis developer for $32 million. Over in Coconut Grove, things are tight. If you are shopping for a luxury home there, inventory is incredibly low. A perfect example: the Coconut Grove home of Kaufman Rossin's co-founder just landed a massive $17 million contract. That said, if you are looking at the lower end of the Grove, buyers actually have some leverage. Even the rumors are scaling up. People are asking if Ken Griffin is building his own city inside Miami. When you have that level of wealth committing long-term to the city, the floor for luxury real estate isn't dropping anytime soon. And for those looking for the ultimate trophy property, a compound in Coral Gables is hitting the market for $148 million, which could set a brand new price record for that area.
Condo Realities: Assessments and Pricing Quirks
If you own or are looking to buy a condo, there are two things on my radar this week that you need to know. First, the reality of condo assessments. In Brickell, a condo association just got into a major uproar over a $21 million assessment. Now the association is saying the contractor overbilled them and left work unfinished. This is exactly why you need to dig deep into the association's minutes and financials before you sign anything. Do not skip this step. Second, pricing a high-rise unit is getting trickier. HousingWire put out a piece pointing out that in high-rise markets, the best comp might be just floors away rather than down the street. I see this all the time. Two identical layouts in the same building can have wildly different values based on the floor height, the specific angle of the bay view, or how much noise comes up from the street. You can't just look at neighborhood averages. You have to look at the vertical data.
What I'd Do About It
- If you are selling a luxury home in prime areas like Coconut Grove or waterfront Miami Beach, put it on the market now. The serious buyers are still fighting over clean, high-end properties and paying premiums.
- If you are buying a condo, ignore the "neighborhood average price per square foot" metric. Look at the exact vertical stack comps in that specific building, and hire a lawyer to scrutinize the association’s assessment history.
- Accept that Miami is now an expensive global city. Stop waiting for 2021 prices to return—they aren't. Buy for the long-term lifestyle and the solid wealth preservation that Miami's new status offers.