Forget the Rate Hikes: Miami’s $10M+ Market Is Shattering Records

2026-09-21 · Weekly Market Brief

While national headlines worry about Fed rate hikes, Miami's ultra-luxury market is on pace to shatter annual records for $10M+ sales. Here is what's actually happening on the ground.

If you listen to the national news, you’d think the real estate market is grinding to a halt because the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates again. We all know how higher rates spook the average buyer. But when you look at what is actually happening on the ground in Miami right now, there is a massive disconnect. The ultra-luxury sector here isn't just surviving; it is actively rewriting the record books.

We are on pace to completely shatter the annual record for home sales priced at $10 million and up in Miami-Dade County. Local reports from the Miami Herald and other outlets are confirming this rush. Buyers in this bracket aren't waiting for rate cuts. They are deploying serious capital, and they want the best of the best. We just saw developer Philippe Harari sell his Coconut Grove home for over $80 million. That is a mind-boggling number even for the Grove, which has been on an absolute tear.

The $10M+ Club is Getting Crowded

It is not just one-off massive sales. The volume of high-end activity is wild. Former NBA star Juwan Howard just found a buyer for his Coral Gables estate, and Alex Sapir and his estranged wife are under contract to sell their waterfront Miami Beach home. Whether it is a $28 million spec mansion selling in Miami Beach or a $31 million triplex penthouse with its own rooftop pool and spa hitting the market, the velocity of these transactions is telling us something very clear: wealthy buyers still view Miami as a safe harbor for their wealth. Yes, the Fed's rate hikes might cool down the entry-level and mid-markets where mortgages are a necessity, but the top of the Miami market operates on its own set of rules. It runs on cash, global wealth, and a desire to be here.

Pre-Construction and Branded Residences Keep Coming

If you want to know where developers think the market is heading, look at where they are placing their bets. We just got word that supercar-maker Bugatti is going to debut its first US-branded residences right in Brickell. Think about that. Brickell is already dense, but now we're seeing ultra-exclusive partnerships targeting the absolute top tier of international buyers. This joins other heavy-hitter projects in the neighborhood, though it hasn't been entirely smooth sailing this week. There was a bit of a scare when a construction drill rig collapsed at Citadel's site in Brickell, luckily with the worker rescued safely. Further south, the momentum is just as strong. The Lincoln, a boutique condo project in Coconut Grove, just secured a $58 million construction loan after passing the 40% sold mark. Meanwhile, buyers are digging into the details of other premier projects like the Four Seasons Private Residences Coconut Grove. Developers are moving forward because the demand for these boutique, high-service buildings is still incredibly strong.

The New Reality of Financing Pre-Construction

With the Fed raising rates, how you approach buying into these new developments has changed. If you are looking at pre-construction in 2026, you need a different playbook. Here is what I'm seeing and what you need to keep in mind:

• Developer Incentives: Because of the rate environment, some developers are getting creative. You can find structural incentives, but you have to know which projects are hungry enough to offer them.
• Rate Locks: If you are planning to finance, getting a long-term rate lock or understanding your cash-at-closing requirements is more critical than ever.
• Boutique vs. High-Rise: We are seeing a lot of buyers compare boutique oceanfront options like Rivage versus The Perigon versus Rosewood Hillsboro. The smaller, highly private buildings are commanding massive premiums right now because buyers want exclusivity.

What I'd Do About It

If you are a seller in the luxury space, do not let the interest rate headlines scare you into pricing your property defensively. The buyers in the $10 million-plus range are active, and they are willing to pay for turn-key, premium real estate. If you are a buyer looking at pre-construction, do not just look at the shiny renderings. Pay attention to the developer's financing structure, construction progress, and what incentives are on the table. Projects that are already well under construction or have secured their construction loans—like The Lincoln—are much safer bets in a fluctuating rate environment. Let me know if you want to look at the numbers for any of these specific boutique projects. I'm happy to share what I'm seeing on the pricing sheets.